Falls Count Anywhere

09-23-08

Coherency is for suckers.

Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar
The new model that the UFC is trying is "get the most out of the money."

You can’t put a guy in matches with guys you think they’ll beat because they very well may get beat themselves. They’re rushing bigger matches earlier and that’s the idea. Make your money now and hope that the stars that might get destroyed that way are replaced by guys you didn’t expect to pull numbers. Brock Lesnar lost his first fight, and though he dominated his second, he’s still not proven that he can finish. They had some plans for a guy who I’d say was about two steps below the top, and then they pulled a fast one. A good fast one for once.

Randy Couture was upset. He wanted to fight Fedor Emenianenko, the Pride fighter who most said was the world’s greatest heavyweight. He also thought he wasn’t getting paid enough. When UFC didn’t sign Fedor, Randy resigned from the company and started looking at signing with outside companies. There were various offers made to him and a court case filed by Mark Cuban trying to free him up for his MMA start-up. Court decisions did not go their way and thus, Couture started talking seriously with UFC.

They’d just had Brock pull another good number for his fight with Heath Herring and that meant that he was a hot item again. Lesnar was as good money as Emelianenko, and UFC had him under contract. That sealed it and the fight was made.

Couture’s 45, but still is in amazing shape, both mentally and physically. He’s had three fights beyond the age of 43 that he was supposed to lose and ended up winning. He’s the best drawing heavyweight in the world, without question. Lesnar’s close. This’ll be a big number, almost certainly, and the gate from Vegas will likely be the larget for anything all year. Can Couture still go? I’m thinking yes. Can Couture win? I’m thinking maybe.

The problems are three for Randy. The first one is he’s not been in the ring for almost 9 months. The last time he had something of a lay-off, he came right back and was the winner of his first fight. It was perfect. He’s also a little bit older, a little bit more tired, but every bit as focused. He’s also facing a Lesnar who is not what he’ll be in a year or two.

There’s no question he’s going to be a big deal in MMA, and likely be one of the top fighters as well as one of the top draws. He’s got all the physical tools and there’s no top rope for him to come down on his head from. He needs experience and he needs time to train. In fact, I’d say that training wasn’t his weak point. Lesnar might be as good a wrestler as Couture, and to see a fight between the two that’s mostly a wrestling match would be incredible to the purists, but who can close it out MMA-style will be the important question.

On the other hand, Lesnar has good stand-up, might even have the advantage of stand-up over Randy, but he’s untested. The size thing’ll be a matter, as Brock will probably be 20% larger than Randy, but it’s not that important, as the various Japanese mixed-size fights have shown. It will make things harder. It’s also a five round fight and there’s the question if Brock can last into the fourth and fifth rounds. I’m guessing it’ll get there on this one too.

So, am I picking Couture? Nope. I think it’ll go long, maybe to a decision, and I’m picking Lesnar. He’s an immovable object and a dominating force that’s waiting to meet with the same. I’m thinking this could be the fight that establishes Brock as the Next Big Thing…again.

Chris Garcia